The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has eased immediate fears of a prolonged global energy crisis, but the economic fallout is likely to linger for dozens of vulnerable countries that remain heavily dependent on imported fuel, food and agricultural inputs.
This is according to latest warning by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The organisation said the disruption has exposed deep structural weaknesses across developing economies that are least equipped to absorb external shocks.
Although Brent crude prices have retreated to about $73 per barrel after shipping gradually resumed, UNCTAD cautioned that lower oil prices alone will not reverse the broader economic damage. Supply chain disruptions have already filtered through transport, agriculture and food systems, creating pressures that could persist well beyond the restoration of maritime traffic.
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments, making it one of the world’s most strategically important trade routes. Any disruption quickly reverberates across international commodity markets, raising transportation costs and increasing the prices of essential goods.
UNCTAD identified 61 economies as particularly vulnerable to the recent shock because of their dependence on imported oil and cereals. Many of these countries also face limited fiscal capacity, making it harder for governments to cushion households and businesses from rising costs. Nations such as Cape Verde and Yemen were highlighted among those most exposed.
The agency warned that higher fuel and natural gas prices have also driven up fertilizer costs, placing additional strain on agricultural production. That combination threatens to reduce harvests, increase food inflation and worsen living conditions in countries already battling economic hardship.
According to UNCTAD, even modest increases in food prices can have severe humanitarian consequences. A 5 percent rise in food costs, it noted, significantly increases the risk of childhood wasting in vulnerable populations, underscoring the close link between geopolitical instability and food security.
The agency urged the international community to provide targeted support for countries most affected by the disruption, arguing that timely assistance would help prevent temporary supply shocks from developing into prolonged economic crises.
The warning comes as analysts continue to assess the broader consequences of months of instability around the Strait of Hormuz. While shipping has gradually resumed under coordinated international arrangements, trade flows remain below normal levels and freight costs have yet to fully stabilise.
For many developing economies, UNCTAD said, the crisis is a reminder that resilience depends not only on access to energy, but also on diversified supply chains, stronger domestic production and greater international cooperation in times of geopolitical uncertainty.
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Emmanuel Abara Benson is a business journalist and editor covering artificial intelligence, global markets, and emerging technology.
He has previously worked with Business Insider Africa and Nairametrics, reporting on finance, startups, and innovation.
His work focuses on AI, digital economy, and global tech trends.
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