Africa could lose as much as $3.6 billion in economic output if the current Ebola outbreak spreads beyond the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, according to a new United Nations assessment.
The report warned that the health emergency could quickly evolve into a continent-wide development crisis.
The warning, contained in a report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), comes as health authorities struggle to contain the fast-moving outbreak of the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, which has no approved vaccine or treatment. Since the outbreak was declared on May 15, more than 1,300 infections and 377 deaths have been recorded in the Democratic Republic of Congo, while Uganda has also reported cases.
UNDP said the economic consequences would extend far beyond the immediate health response if transmission continues unchecked. Reduced trade, weaker investor confidence, disruptions to agriculture and transport, and declining productivity could significantly slow growth across the continent, particularly in countries with already fragile economies.
The agency outlined three possible scenarios. In the most optimistic case, where the outbreak remains largely confined to the two affected countries, Congo alone could lose around $1 billion ($1 billion) in gross domestic product. However, a wider regional spread would sharply increase economic losses, pushing Africa’s total cost to as much as $3.6 billion while eliminating an estimated 328,000 jobs and driving nearly one million more people into poverty.
The report also warned that the outbreak is unfolding against a backdrop of other economic pressures, including elevated fuel prices and supply chain disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions. Those combined shocks could deepen inflation, weaken household incomes and further constrain governments already facing limited fiscal space.
The latest projections reinforce growing concern among international health agencies that the outbreak is advancing faster than containment efforts. Last week, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention increased its funding requirement for the response to $1.4 billion, saying inadequate financing could undermine efforts to halt transmission.
The World Health Organization has also warned that conflict, population displacement and limited access to affected communities continue to hamper disease surveillance and contact tracing, particularly in eastern Congo where the outbreak is concentrated.
UNDP urged governments and international partners to strengthen both the public health response and economic support measures, arguing that rapid intervention remains the most cost-effective way to prevent a much larger humanitarian and financial crisis across Africa.
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Emmanuel Abara Benson is a business journalist and editor covering artificial intelligence, global markets, and emerging technology.
He has previously worked with Business Insider Africa and Nairametrics, reporting on finance, startups, and innovation.
His work focuses on AI, digital economy, and global tech trends.
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