The African Development Bank has warned that the ongoing Middle East crisis could slow Africa’s economic growth this year as rising fuel, food and fertilizer costs place renewed pressure on economies across the continent.
In its latest economic outlook, the AfDB projected Africa’s growth will ease slightly to 4.2 percent in 2026 from 4.4 percent in 2025 before recovering again next year.
The bank said the slowdown is being driven largely by supply chain disruptions and rising global energy prices linked to the conflict involving Iran and instability around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes.
According to the report, prolonged disruption could worsen the outlook further, especially for African countries heavily dependent on imported fuel, food and fertilizer. The AfDB warned that if the crisis continues for several more months, economic growth could weaken to around 4 percent.
Despite the challenges, Africa is still expected to remain one of the world’s fastest growing regions alongside parts of Asia, outperforming Europe and Latin America. The bank said more than 20 African countries are still projected to post growth above 5 percent, supported by commodity exports, agriculture and economic reforms.
However, inflationary pressure is rising again across much of the continent. The AfDB now expects average inflation in Africa to reach 10.4 percent this year as higher import costs feed into transport, energy and food prices.
The economic impact is expected to vary across regions. East Africa is forecast to remain the continent’s fastest growing region despite a slight slowdown, while Southern Africa faces weaker momentum due to mining and energy challenges. Oil producing countries in Central and North Africa could temporarily benefit from elevated crude prices.
AfDB President Sidi Ould Tah said the continent must increasingly rely on domestic capital and stronger African financial systems as foreign aid and concessional financing continue to decline globally.
The bank estimates Africa faces an annual development financing gap exceeding $1.3 trillion covering infrastructure, energy, healthcare, climate adaptation and industrial growth.
The warning highlights how geopolitical instability far beyond Africa’s borders is increasingly shaping inflation, trade flows and economic performance across the continent.
Stay ahead of the stories shaping our world. Subscribe to Impact Newswire for timely, curated insights on global tech, business, and innovation all in one place.
Dive deeper into the future with the Cause Effect 4.0 Podcast, where we explore the ideas, trends, and technologies driving the global AI conversation.
Got a story to share? Pitch it to us at info@impactnews-wire.com and reach the right audience worldwide
Emmanuel Abara Benson is a business journalist and editor covering artificial intelligence, global markets, and emerging technology.
He has previously worked with Business Insider Africa and Nairametrics, reporting on finance, startups, and innovation.
His work focuses on AI, digital economy, and global tech trends.
Discover more from Impact Newswire
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
