As ministers gather in Yaoundé this week, they face the difficult task of bridging deep divisions that have persisted for months in Geneva, with disagreements over decision-making rules, development provisions, and market transparency, while separate disputes over e-commerce moratoriums and investment facilitation add pressure, all against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions and disrupted global trade, making it clear that the success of the World Trade Organization will depend less on ambition and more on whether countries are willing to compromise and deliver tangible steps rather than promises that have long outpaced results
Divisions among members of the World Trade Organization are threatening to derail efforts to agree on long-awaited reforms at a ministerial meeting in Cameroon this week, diplomats and officials said, raising the risk of a limited outcome from the gathering.
More than 100 trade ministers will meet in Yaoundé from March 26 to 29 to discuss how to modernise the 30-year-old body, which has struggled to deliver new agreements and resolve disputes in recent years. But negotiators say consensus remains elusive after months of talks in Geneva.
Petter Øllberg, Norway’s ambassador to the WTO and the facilitator of reform discussions, said most members support the direction of a draft plan but disagree on its scope.
“A large majority of members support the plan,” he told reporters on March 11. Countries broadly agree the organisation needs reform, he said, but “there is some disagreement.”
“Some want more ambition; some want less ambition. Some want more detail; some want less detail,” he added, citing the United States and India as key holdouts.
Diplomats say ministers are now under pressure to bridge those gaps in a matter of days, after a “Geneva-first” approach to settle issues ahead of the meeting failed to produce consensus.
Instead of agreeing on concrete reforms, ministers are expected to focus on a programme of work after the conference, reflecting the complexity of overhauling the organisation.
The draft plan outlines three main areas for change, including decision-making, development provisions for poorer countries and improving transparency in trade measures. It also touches briefly on reforming the WTO’s dispute settlement system, which has been largely paralysed since 2019 after the United States blocked appointments to its top appeals body.
On decision-making, members continue to debate whether to maintain the consensus rule or allow more flexible approaches, such as plurilateral agreements among smaller groups of countries. The issue has long frustrated efforts to reach deals.
Disagreements are also emerging over development rules, particularly special treatment provisions claimed by large developing economies, and over how to address market distortions linked to state intervention, a concern raised by Western countries in relation to China.
Diplomats said the best-case scenario in Yaoundé would be agreement on a roadmap with timelines and checkpoints, but warned that differences remain wide.
The United States supports reform in principle but has said discussions are not “sufficiently mature” to produce a detailed plan. Others, including China, the European Union, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, favour a more substantive outcome and have warned against a process-focused agreement that would delay decisions.
“Just let that go and start again from scratch after MC14 would be a waste of time and energy,” one Western trade delegate said.
Separate disputes risk complicating talks further.
Members are seeking to incorporate a global investment facilitation agreement into the WTO framework, but India is understood to be blocking consensus.
A separate standoff between the United States and India over extending a moratorium on customs duties for e-commerce transmissions, due to expire at the end of March, could also prove contentious. The moratorium allows digital goods such as software and media to be traded duty-free.
The United States is pushing for a permanent extension, while India opposes continuing the arrangement, although it softened its position at the last ministerial meeting in Abu Dhabi in 2024.
The backdrop to the meeting has added to the pressure.
Rising geopolitical tensions, including conflict in the Middle East, have disrupted global trade and made coordination more difficult. The WTO has warned that prolonged energy disruptions could slow trade growth, while travel challenges linked to the conflict have complicated attendance for some delegates.
The organisation has also faced growing strain after a year of unilateral trade actions and bilateral deals that have sidelined multilateral processes.
“The fundamental problem is governments unable to agree with each other,” wrote Peter Ungphakorn, a former WTO official, and Robert Wolfe, a Canadian trade policy expert. “Events elsewhere mean governments struggle to turn their attention to what’s needed in the WTO. And yet those events mean multilateralism and the WTO are needed more than ever”.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala urged members to deliver a result.
“The WTO has long spoken of unfinished negotiations and long-overdue reform, yet too often our promises have outpaced our results,” she said. “This conference must demonstrate that this time is different.”
Diplomats said the outcome of the meeting will depend on whether countries are willing to make concessions to secure agreement, with some expressing uncertainty over whether key positions will shift before the conference concludes.
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