The Scramble for Cobalt and Lithium is Redrawing Africa’s Environmental Map

A continent-wide analysis of 16,627 mines across sub-Saharan Africa between 2001 and 2020 finds that mining has cleared about 187,000 hectares of land directly, while also triggering far larger indirect ecosystem losses linked to the region’s critical minerals boom, which sits within an industry projected by the IMF to generate up to $16 trillion globally over the next 25 years. Researchers estimate that for every hectare directly cleared for extraction, an additional 34 hectares are lost within five years through spillover effects such as agriculture and settlement expansion, with mining also associated with an 8 percent increase in deforestation within one kilometer of mine sites compared with non-mining areas.

On the forest edges of the Democratic Republic of Congo, in the copper belts of Zambia, and across new prospecting corridors in East Africa, drilling rigs and haul roads are increasingly cutting into landscapes that until recently were defined more by canopy than machinery. The scramble for critical minerals is no longer abstract. It is visible in cleared land, shifting settlements and expanding extraction zones that now sit at the heart of the global energy transition.

East Africa’s expanding role in the global scramble for critical minerals is driving economic gains while accelerating environmental pressures, according to new data and research that highlight a growing tension between development and conservation.

The region’s deposits of copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite have become increasingly important as advanced economies shift toward low-carbon energy systems and expand demand for materials used in batteries, electric vehicles, defense technologies, communications infrastructure and artificial intelligence. That global demand has coincided with renewed political attention, including discussions among Group of 7 leaders meeting in Evian, France, from June 15 to 17 on more sustainable access to critical minerals.

Experts say the mining boom is already reshaping landscapes across East Africa, where expanding extraction sites are linked to forest loss and environmental risks for nearby communities. They warn that without stronger oversight, the economic benefits of mineral development could be undermined by long-term ecological damage.

The stakes are high for a region where mineral exports have become a significant growth driver. Rising shipments of ores, particularly copper and precious metals, have helped boost the East African Community’s external trade performance. 

According to the East African Community Quarterly Statistics Bulletin, total merchandise trade in the bloc reached $46.3 billion in the first quarter of 2026, up 30.7 percent from $35.4 billion in the same period a year earlier. The report attributes much of the increase to strong global demand and higher prices for minerals.

Across sub-Saharan Africa, the mineral surge is part of a broader investment cycle tied to the energy transition. An International Monetary Fund economic outlook published in April found that the Democratic Republic of Congo accounts for more than 70 percent of global cobalt output and about half of known reserves. It also noted that South Africa, Gabon and Ghana together account for over 60 percent of global manganese production, while Zimbabwe, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Mali hold large lithium deposits that remain underdeveloped.

Other countries, including Guinea, Mozambique, South Africa and Zambia, also have established reserves of copper, iron and aluminum. “With growing demand, proceeds from critical minerals are poised to rise significantly over the next two decades,” the IMF says, adding that global revenues from the extraction of copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium are estimated to total $16 trillion over the next 25 years. 

Sub-Saharan Africa stands to reap over 10 percent of these cumulative revenues, which could correspond to an increase in the region’s GDP by 12 percent or more by 2050. “Given the volatile nature of commodity prices and the unpredictability of the future direction of technological innovation, these estimates have a high degree of uncertainty, but the general direction is certainly encouraging.”

But new scientific findings suggest that these gains may come with significant environmental trade-offs. A study published June 3 in the journal Nature found that mining expansion is contributing to deforestation across tropical regions in sub-Saharan Africa.

“Mines extracting cobalt and copper, key energy transition minerals, caused the highest amount of additional deforestation,” said scientists in their report, published in the journal on June 3. “Embedding offsite deforestation levels into environmental impact assessments for new mining projects will be key to ensuring zero-deforestation or no-net-loss supply chains for critical minerals and reducing future mining-driven forest losses in sub-Saharan Africa.” 

Across sub-Saharan Africa, the report estimates that “for each hectare of deforestation attributed directly to the mine footprint, an additional 33.9 ha of dense forest was lost to offsite drivers.”

The Democratic Republic of Congo recorded the highest relative offsite impacts, with mining linked to an estimated 58.1 hectares of additional deforestation outside direct mine footprints. Researchers also found that the country’s direct forest loss of about 39,000 hectares makes mining-driven deforestation a major conservation concern. 

Significant spillover effects were also identified in Mozambique, at 52.4 hectares of offsite loss per hectare directly cleared, followed by the Central African Republic at 50.0 hectares, Angola at 49.2 hectares, Sierra Leone at 44.2 hectares and Côte d’Ivoire at 42.9 hectares. While these countries show similarly high ratios of indirect forest loss, their absolute direct mining footprints remain less than one-third of those recorded in the DRC.

Forest loss in the country is driven by a combination of expanding agriculture, logging, urban growth and the spread of mining activities. Estimates suggest that around 500,000 hectares of forest are lost each year, a trend fuelled by rapid population growth, rising demand for charcoal, expanding cities and continued reliance on traditional farming methods that place sustained pressure on forest ecosystems.

As the world’s largest producer of cobalt, the DRC accounts for roughly 76 percent of global supply, with annual output of about 220,000 tonnes. It is also a major copper producer, with production exceeding three million tonnes a year. Much of this activity is concentrated in the Haut-Katanga and Lualaba provinces, which function as key centres of economic output but also as hotspots of environmental strain.

In response, President Félix Tshisekedi has repeatedly warned against illegal and unregulated mining, framing it as a growing threat to both state revenues and environmental governance. At a cabinet meeting in April, he condemned what he described as the organised plundering of natural resources, arguing that such activity operates outside the Mining Code and environmental standards.

The government has since ordered tighter oversight of mining operations, including stronger enforcement by the General Inspectorate of Mines, seizure of equipment used in illegal sites, and prosecution of those involved in unlawful extraction. Several projects near protected areas have also been suspended in an effort to safeguard high-biodiversity ecosystems.

These measures form part of a broader policy push to position the country as a so-called “solution country” in global climate discussions. Authorities have also launched a large-scale reforestation programme targeting one billion trees, with nearly 894 million already planted and an estimated 733,094 hectares of forest reportedly restored. However, environmental experts say these gains remain modest compared with the scale and pace of ongoing deforestation pressures.

The researchers analyzed land use data from 16,627 mines across the continent between 2001 and 2020. They found that 187,000 hectares of land had been cleared directly for mining. In addition, mining activity was associated with an eight percent increase in deforestation within one kilometer of mine sites compared with similar areas without mining.

The study also found that indirect effects were significantly larger than direct clearing. “For every hectare of direct deforestation due to the mine footprint, mining triggers, on average, 34 hectares of additional offsite loss within five years through ancillary activities, including agriculture and settlements.”

In countries already experiencing mining expansion, including the Democratic Republic of Congo, researchers say extraction is also contributing to land disputes, pressure on indigenous communities and risks of local conflict. 

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