Africa could suffer economic losses of between $10 billion and $20 billion if the developing “super” El Niño intensifies, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB).
The AfDB warned that the weather event could trigger widespread food shortages, displacement and financial strain across the continent.
Anthony Nyong, the AfDB’s Director for Climate Change and Green Growth, said countries most exposed to the phenomenon could see their gross domestic product shrink by 1% to 2% on average as droughts, floods and storms disrupt agriculture, infrastructure and economic activity.
Forecasters have warned that current warming trends in the Pacific Ocean could produce one of the strongest El Niño events on record, raising the risk of prolonged drought in some parts of Africa and severe flooding in others.
The AfDB’s latest economic outlook, published in May, projected Africa’s economy to expand by 4.2% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027, assuming geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ease. Those forecasts, however, were made before warnings of a potential super El Niño emerged.
Nyong said the projected losses mark the first estimate by a major multilateral development bank of the economic impact a super El Niño could have on Africa. While he did not provide country-specific figures, he warned that the consequences could extend well beyond a single season.
He pointed to the Sahel, where drought conditions have persisted in recent years, and Mozambique, which continues to recover from the destruction caused by Cyclone Idai in 2019, as examples of how climate-related disasters can have long-lasting economic effects.
The AfDB also warned that governments risk falling into a “climate finance trap,” where limited fiscal resources force them to divert funding from healthcare, education and infrastructure to emergency disaster response.
Agriculture is expected to bear some of the heaviest losses. The bank estimates damage to the sector could reach $327 million, while fishery yields may decline by as much as 4%. Maize prices could also double in severely affected regions, increasing food insecurity and driving population displacement.
Nyong said Africa’s climate adaptation needs could reach $100 billion this year. The AfDB plans to convene a climate seminar in September to reassess investments and mobilise additional financing ahead of the United Nations climate conference in Turkey later this year.
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Emmanuel Abara Benson is a business journalist and editor covering artificial intelligence, global markets, and emerging technology.
He has previously worked with Business Insider Africa and Nairametrics, reporting on finance, startups, and innovation.
His work focuses on AI, digital economy, and global tech trends.
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