Is the Nigerian Economy really Stabilising Under President Tinubu?

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu said Nigeria’s economy is stabilising despite the pain caused by his reforms. On paper, he has some evidence to support that claim. The naira is less chaotic than it was in 2023. The country’s foreign reserves have improved. Investor confidence has returned to parts of the financial market. Nigeria’s stock exchange is performing well. Even international institutions like the IMF and World Bank now speak more positively about macroeconomic stability in Africa’s largest economy.

But there is a deeper question the president carefully avoids: the economy is stabilising for whom?

Economic stability cannot simply mean happier investors while millions of citizens sink deeper into poverty. A country cannot claim recovery when basic survival becomes harder for ordinary people every single month. And that is where the reality of Tinubu’s reforms begins to clash with official government triumphalism.

The president’s reforms were aggressive from the start. Fuel subsidies were removed almost immediately after he took office. The naira was floated. Electricity tariffs increased. Taxes expanded. These policies were defended as necessary corrections to years of distortion and fiscal recklessness. Even critics admitted that some reforms were unavoidable.

But the problem is not only the reforms themselves. The problem is the social cost and the absence of visible relief.

According to Reuters, Tinubu recently pointed to stronger public finances, improved investor confidence, increased oil and gas investment, and infrastructure spending as proof that Nigeria has stabilised. These gains are real, by the way.

The World Bank also acknowledges that Nigeria has made “meaningful progress in restoring macroeconomic stability.” Credit rating agencies like S&P have upgraded Nigeria’s outlook, citing exchange rate liberalisation and stronger external balances.

But macroeconomic indicators are not the same thing as quality of life.

Inflation may be slowing compared to the worst periods of 2024, yet prices remain brutally high. The IMF still projects Nigeria’s inflation at around 16 percent in 2026. Food prices remain devastating for low-income households. Transport costs exploded after subsidy removal. Rent is skyrocketing. Electricity remains unreliable despite higher tariffs. Meanwhile, real wages have collapsed.

The Nigerian economy may technically be growing, but citizens are not necessarily growing with it.

The economy expanded by 3.89 percent in the first quarter of 2026. On the surface, that sounds encouraging. But Nigeria’s population growth remains among the fastest in the world. When population growth is factored in, per capita prosperity still looks weak. Economic growth that fails to improve living standards becomes politically fragile and socially dangerous.

Tinubu also points to a booming stock market as evidence of success. Yet the average Nigerian does not own meaningful equities. A soaring exchange does not automatically translate into food affordability in Mushin, Aba, Kano or Maiduguri. Financial markets often reward policy discipline long before citizens feel any relief.

That disconnect is becoming the defining feature of this administration.
The government says subsidy removal saved public finances. Fair enough. But where exactly are the visible social protections? Where are the mass transit systems that should cushion transport shocks? Where is the stable electricity supply that justifies tariff increases? Where is the large-scale industrial expansion that should absorb unemployed youth?

Instead, Nigerians are being asked to endure indefinite sacrifice while promised benefits remain mostly statistical.

Even institutions praising the reforms acknowledge this contradiction. The World Bank itself noted that household incomes have not fully recovered and poverty remains high despite macroeconomic progress. That single sentence quietly undermines much of the government’s celebration.

Nigeria’s debt burden also remains deeply worrying. Tinubu himself recently complained that debt servicing could consume nearly half of government revenue in 2026. If almost half of state revenue goes into debt repayment, then the government’s fiscal room to genuinely improve social welfare remains dangerously limited.

And then there is insecurity!

Economic stability cannot exist in isolation from physical security. Farmers still face attacks in many parts of the country. Logistics costs remain elevated partly because transport routes are unsafe. Investors may admire reforms, but insecurity continues to choke productivity across large parts of the country.

To be fair, Tinubu inherited a difficult economy. Years of subsidy distortions, weak productivity, forex dysfunction, and oil theft created a fiscal time bomb. Pretending otherwise would be dishonest. Some painful reforms were probably inevitable.

But leadership is not judged only by whether reforms are economically correct. It is judged by whether citizens can survive them.

Nigeria today may be more attractive to international investors than it was three years ago. But many Nigerians also feel poorer, more anxious, and less economically secure.

So yes, there are signs of stabilisation at the very top of the economy. The numbers show that much. But for millions at the bottom, stability still feels like an announcement rather than a lived reality. That needs to change before President Tinubu can justifiably boast of his “accomplishments”.

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