The warning reflects how quickly diplomacy can tilt toward confrontation when trust between longtime adversaries erodes. With military forces repositioned, demands hardening and little evidence of compromise, even the act of urging civilians to leave signals that Washington is preparing for outcomes far beyond the negotiating table
The United States issued a security alert early Friday urging American citizens in Iran to “leave Iran now” and prepare departure plans that do not rely on U.S. government assistance, as Washington and Tehran prepared for a new round of negotiations in Oman.
The warning comes amid rising tensions in the Middle East and ahead of talks that American and Iranian officials say will include U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, meeting a delegation led by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
The U.S. Virtual Embassy in Iran has released several security alerts in recent weeks. On Jan. 14, it similarly advised Americans to depart the country as Trump weighed options for possible intervention, including targeted military strikes.
Friday’s meeting would mark the first official talks between Tehran and Washington since tensions escalated in June last year, when a 12-day war with Israel prompted U.S. airstrikes that severely damaged Iran’s three main nuclear facilities.
However, disputes over the scope and venue of the negotiations have raised doubts about whether the talks will produce progress, leaving open the possibility of U.S. military action.
Washington has reportedly demanded that Iran discard its stockpile of enriched uranium, limit its ballistic missile program and halt support for militant groups across the Middle East. Trump has threatened military strikes if Tehran fails to comply.
Iran has rejected those demands as an infringement on its sovereignty and has warned it would respond forcefully to any attack by targeting U.S. military positions in the region and Israel.
The diplomatic effort unfolds as the United States increases its military presence in the Gulf. Trump said he had deployed a “massive armada,” led by the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, to the region ahead of the negotiations.
Prospects for a breakthrough appear limited.
The core demands of both sides remain “far apart and there is zero trust,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group.
McNally estimated a 75% probability that the United States and Iran could engage in military hostilities in the coming days or weeks. Possible scenarios include a Venezuela-style blockade, selective or limited strikes or a broader conflict, he said.
The talks were initially scheduled to take place in Istanbul, reflecting Turkey’s role as a mediator, with foreign ministers from Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey expected to attend. Tehran requested a last-minute change on Tuesday, asking that the meeting be held in Oman and limited to Iranian and American representatives.
McNally said that because Trump has tied U.S. credibility to the outcome, the president may feel compelled to act if Iran refuses major concessions. Conversely, if Washington refrains from military action, Israel could carry out strikes against Iranian missile, nuclear and leadership targets.
Regional tensions intensified earlier this year following nationwide protests in Iran. Authorities suppressed the demonstrations, killing at least 6,883 people as of Wednesday, according to the Washington-based Human Rights Activists News Agency.
Trump had previously threatened to intervene in support of protesters but ultimately chose not to take military action.
Get the latest news and insights that are shaping the world. Subscribe to Impact Newswire to stay informed and be part of the global conversation.
Got a story to share? Pitch it to us at info@impactnews-wire.com and reach the right audience worldwide
Discover more from Impact Newswire
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
