Singapore Warns Hormuz Tensions Could Be ‘Dry Run’ For U.S.-China War

Singapore’s foreign minister says the city-state will “refuse to choose” between Washington and Beijing even as geopolitical rivalry deepens, stressing the strategic risks around global shipping chokepoints and the need to keep vital trade routes open under international law.

Singapore’s foreign minister warned on Wednesday that tensions in the Middle East could foreshadow a far larger conflict in the Pacific, saying disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz would amount to a “dry run” if war were to break out between the United States and China.

“Should a war break out between China and the U.S. in the Pacific, what you are seeing in the Strait of Hormuz will be a dry run,” Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said at CNBC’s CONVERGE LIVE event in Singapore.

Balakrishnan was responding to a question on whether Singapore faced pressure from Washington and Beijing to choose between them, as rivalry intensifies between the world’s two largest economies.

Singapore maintains close ties with both countries and is positioned to benefit from developments in each, he said.

The United States is Singapore’s largest foreign investor, with around 6,000 American companies operating in the city-state. Singapore also runs a goods trade deficit with Washington of about $3.6 billion, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

China, meanwhile, is Singapore’s largest trading partner, while Singapore is the largest foreign investor in China.

Despite these ties, Balakrishnan said Singapore would not align itself exclusively with either side.

“Singapore will refuse to choose,” he said. “The way we conduct our affairs is we assess what is in Singapore’s long term national interests, and if I have to say no to Washington or Beijing or anyone else, we don’t flinch from that.”

“We are acting in our own long term national interest. We will be useful, but we will not be made use of,” he added.

Balakrishnan also highlighted the strategic importance of global maritime chokepoints, noting that recent tensions in the Middle East underscored their vulnerability.

“Chokepoints matter,” he said, pointing to Singapore’s position along the Strait of Malacca, one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.

At its narrowest, the Strait of Malacca is about two nautical miles wide, compared with 21 nautical miles for the Strait of Hormuz.

Balakrishnan was asked about reports that Iran could impose tolls on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could raise concerns about similar actions elsewhere.

In March, Iranian state media reported that Tehran was preparing legislation to impose such tolls.

Balakrishnan said countries bordering the Strait of Malacca, including Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia, had a shared interest in keeping the route open.

“With respect to both America and China, we have told both of them we operate on the basis of UNCLOS,” he said, referring to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

“The right of transit passage is guaranteed for everyone. We will not participate in any attempts to close or interdict or to impose tolls in our neighborhood,” he added.

He also stressed the importance of trust in a period marked by geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as trade disputes.

“Trust is basically a way of lowering transaction costs. Being predictable, being boring, being reliable, being trustworthy has got real value,” Balakrishnan said.

His remarks followed a keynote speech by Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong, who said trust “can no longer be assumed, it has to be built and strengthened.”

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