Microsoft is Betting Big on AI to Produce Quantum Machines by 2029

Microsoft’s announcement suggests a stronger possibility that useful quantum computing may arrive sooner than previously expected, as it reports a major improvement in qubit stability on its new chip, with quantum states lasting far longer than before and therefore reducing error rates that have so far limited practical use; if this trajectory continues, it increases the likelihood that quantum machines could move from experimental lab systems toward real-world applications within the next few years, including in areas such as materials science, chemistry, and complex optimisation problems that are currently beyond classical computers, although this outcome still depends on whether the technology can be successfully scaled from a small number of qubits to the millions required for commercially viable systems and whether those qubits can remain stable at that scale.

Microsoft has unveiled a new quantum computing chip that it redesigned with the help of AI, saying it now believes it will have commercially useful quantum machines by 2029. The company says the chip is significantly more stable than its earlier version, marking a step toward practical quantum computing systems within the next few years.

The chip, called Majorana 2, is designed to improve the stability of qubits, the fundamental building blocks of quantum computing that can perform complex calculations far beyond the reach of classical computers, but are highly sensitive to environmental disruption.

At the core of the announcement is a major improvement in qubit performance. Microsoft says qubits on the Majorana 2 chip can remain stable for an average of around 20 seconds, compared with milliseconds on its earlier Majorana 1 system. The company said this represents a roughly 1,000-fold increase in reliability.

“It is a big jump in stability,” Microsoft said, comparing the improvement to “the difference between a phone that needs charging every day to one which needs charging every few years.”

Zulfi Alam, corporate vice president of Microsoft Quantum, said the company is targeting a working quantum machine by the end of the decade.

“We will have a quantum machine in 2029 that can solve commercially viable, reasonable problems,” he said.

However, Alam acknowledged that a fully functional system would require major scaling, including millions of qubits, compared with just 12 on the current experimental chip.

Quantum computing relies on qubits that can exist in multiple states at once, offering the potential to solve problems that are currently infeasible for even the most powerful supercomputers. But qubits are notoriously fragile, and even minor temperature shifts or vibrations can introduce errors.

Microsoft’s approach is based on so-called topological quantum computing, a method it has pursued for around two decades. It relies on exploiting exotic physical states of matter that are difficult to observe and control, including theoretical particles first proposed in the 1930s by physicist Ettore Majorana.

To achieve this, the company has also had to work with unconventional materials. The latest chip reportedly improves performance partly by replacing aluminium with lead as a superconducting material.

The company’s long-running approach has faced scepticism in parts of the scientific community, particularly after it retracted a 2018 Nature paper that had claimed evidence of Majorana particles. Microsoft later released its first Majorana chip in 2025.

Jason Zander, executive vice president of Microsoft Quantum and Discovery, defended the company’s research.

“We stand behind it 100%,” he said. “We really look to scientific rigor. We welcome the debate that has always been part of physics.”

Microsoft is also participating in a US defence research programme aimed at validating its quantum computing approach, sharing technical details and data for assessment. However, the latest findings have not yet undergone peer review, and independent scientists have called for further verification.

Experts say that if the technology works as claimed, it could accelerate the timeline for quantum computing applications in fields such as materials science, chemistry and environmental modelling. These include challenges like developing new fertilisers or addressing industrial pollution, though such applications remain long-term prospects.

Despite progress, researchers caution that quantum computing remains in an early experimental phase, with no company yet demonstrating a fully scalable fault-tolerant quantum system.

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